Apr 24 2009
Castle is Leaning Towards the Senate!
For those following the 2010 midterm elections, maybe you’ve heard of this guy. Mike Castle is a Republican in Delaware who is their at-large congressman. He’s been considering running for the Senate, where he could very possibly win. If he doesn’t run, the chances of the Republicans taking this seat are somewhere between slim and none (and slim is leaving town).
In an interview with Roll Call on Thursday Mike Castle stated that he’s leaning towards running for the Senate. If he runs for his House seat again, he will be running against his friend Lt. Gov. John Carney, who he would probably beat. If he runs for the Senate he will likely face Vice President Biden’s son, Delaware Attorney General Beau Biden. And his chances are good. A poll in March had Castle leading Biden 44-36.
There are a few things that make me cautious in my optimism. Although I’d bet that, if he runs for anything, he’ll run for Senate, it’s always possible he doesn’t run. He’s 71 years old, and it says something that his friend John Carney is running for his seat (that maybe his friend suspected Castle planned on retiring). If he does run, how thoroughly will he campaign? He’s pretty old and has been openly discussing that he’s contemplating retirement, will he be able to dedicate the time and energy it takes to seriously campaign? Along with this, it would be very embarassing to the Democrats to lose this seat. It’s the Vice President’s old seat, the Vice President’s son is running for it, and it’s a deep blue state. They are going to spend a lot of money, and will have a lot of help from the President and Vice President in terms of campaign visits. Beau Biden benefits from Democratic support, Castle would probably be hurt by any Republican support. 44-36 is far from a lock, 1 in 5 don’t know who they’d pick. Presuming no one switches (which I am far from certain of) Biden would have to take the undecideds by a 60-40 margin, which wouldn’t be unheard of if he dominates the campaign.
So I don’t know. I hope Castle runs. It’ll probably be a better Republican cycle than the last 2, so he’s got a good shot. It’s far from a lock, but it’s definitely good news.
